In the middle of 2026, the owner of a small furniture showroom in Pretoria noticed something change. Customers still came in, still admired the dining tables and still asked about prices. But fewer of them bought. More said they’d “think about it”. Several asked whether she offered payment plans, which almost nobody had asked before.
She wondered whether it was something she was doing wrong. Her stock hadn’t changed, her prices hadn’t moved and her staff were as friendly as ever.
The answer was probably bigger than her showroom. Across South Africa, household confidence had taken a sharp knock, and a measure that economists watch closely had fallen to its lowest level in over a year. For small businesses, that measure is one of the more useful early signals of how customers are likely to behave in the months ahead.
One Like insight: When customers feel uncertain, they don’t stop wanting things. They start needing more reasons to buy now.
What the index showed in 2026
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, compiled by Stellenbosch University’s Bureau for Economic Research and sponsored by First National Bank, surveys around 2,500 South African households each quarter. It asks how they see the economy, their own finances, and whether now is a good time to buy durable goods such as furniture, appliances and cars. Because confidence tends to move ahead of spending, economists watch it as an early indicator.
2026 has been a rollercoaster. The index started the year at -7 in the first quarter, its second consecutive improvement. Then, in the second quarter, it plunged to -19, its lowest reading since early 2025, as fuel prices surged and an interest rate rise in May squeezed household budgets. Reports at the time noted that petrol prices had risen by about 29% over the quarter and diesel by more than half.
In the third quarter, confidence partly recovered to -13. Interestingly, the rebound was led by lower-income households, whose confidence reached its highest level in several years, while high- and middle-income households recovered only about half the ground they had lost. Commentators described the overall picture as still fragile, with any strong recovery in household spending likely to take time.
A confidence index is a broad national average, and it can’t tell you what’s happening in your town or your sector. But the movements in 2026 explain a lot about the kind of hesitation the furniture showroom owner noticed.
Reading the signal for your business
The usefulness of the index for a small business lies less in the headline number than in what it suggests about customer behaviour.
Big-ticket purchases slow first. When confidence falls, households tend to delay spending on durable goods and larger purchases. Businesses selling furniture, renovations, vehicles or premium services often feel it before those selling everyday essentials.
Different customers move differently. In 2026, lower-income households recovered faster than middle- and higher-income ones. A business that serves mainly one group may see a very different pattern from the national average.
Customers need more reassurance. When people feel uncertain, they look harder at value, guarantees and flexibility. Payment plans, smaller entry-level options and clear evidence that a purchase is worth it can make the difference between “I’ll think about it” and “I’ll take it”.
It’s also worth comparing the index with your own numbers. If confidence falls and your enquiries hold steady but conversions drop, the hesitation is probably about price and timing rather than interest. If enquiries themselves fall, you may need to work harder on visibility.
[Infographic placement] Consumer confidence in 2026. A simple line chart of the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index by quarter: Q4 2025 −9, Q1 2026 −7, Q2 2026 −19, Q3 2026 −13. Short annotations: Q2: fuel price surge and interest rate rise; Q3: partial recovery, led by lower-income households. Caption: Source: FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, as reported in 2026.
Using the signal
You don’t need to become an economist to benefit from this. Make a habit of glancing at the consumer confidence result when it’s published each quarter, and ask one question: what might this mean for my customers over the next few months? Then compare it with what you’re seeing in your own enquiries, conversions and average sale.
When confidence is falling, it may be time to emphasise value and flexibility, offer smaller entry points, protect cash and avoid over-ordering stock. When it’s recovering, it may be time to prepare for pent-up demand, particularly for the purchases people have been postponing.
A few questions can help:
- Which of our products or services are “big-ticket” purchases customers might delay?
- Which customer groups do we mainly serve, and how is their confidence moving?
- Could payment plans, smaller packages or stronger guarantees help hesitant customers?
- Are we seeing fewer enquiries, or the same enquiries converting less often?
Which brings us back to the furniture showroom and its sudden wave of “I’ll think about it”. The owner wasn’t doing anything wrong. Her customers were responding to rising fuel costs and a squeeze on household budgets. Offering a simple payment plan and highlighting a smaller range of affordable pieces wouldn’t change the economy. But it might help the customers who still wanted a new table find a way to say yes.
Sources
- TimesLIVE, “Consumer confidence plunges to worst level since VAT crisis, and fuel is to blame”, 23 June 2026. Q2 2026 reading of −19.
- Business Day, “Consumer confidence rebounds in third quarter but remains fragile”, 18 September 2026. Q3 2026 reading of −13 and the income-group breakdown.
- Bureau for Economic Research, FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index press releases (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 readings); IT-Online, 23 June 2026, for fuel price increases.
